Welcome to the /r/politics polling megathread! As discussed in our metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread, posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted.
National Poll of Polls and Projections
Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
|Aggregator||Clinton %||Trump %||Johnson %||Stein %||Net Margin|
|RCP (4 way)||45.4||39.1||6.1||2.1||Clinton +6.3|
|RCP (H2H)||47.7||42.2||N/A||N/A||Clinton +5.5|
|Pollster/Huffpo (4 way)||45.2||38.5||7.0||N/A||Clinton +6.7|
|Pollster/Huffpo (H2H)||48.7||41.2||N/A||N/A||Clinton +7.5|
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate’s prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate’s chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
|Model||Clinton %||Trump %|
|Fivethirtyeight Polls Plus*||84.9||15.1|
|Princeton Election Consortium**||96||4|
|Daily Kos Elections||96||4|
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium includes both a “random drift” and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the “random drift” values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including “prediction” sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.
Daily Presidential Polls
Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
|Date Released/Pollster||Clinton %||Trump %||Johnson %||Stein %||Net Margin|
|10/17, Monmouth U.||50||38||5||2||Clinton +12|
|10/17, GWU/Battleground||47||39||8||2||Clinton +8|
|10/17, Herald/Franklin Pierce U.||46||41||6||2||Clinton +5|
|10/17, Politico/Morning Consult||42||36||10||3||Clinton +6|
|10/17, Rasmussen||43||41||5||2||Clinton +2|
|10/17, USC/LA Times||44||45||N/A||N/A||Trump +1|
|Date Released/Pollster||State||Clinton %||Trump %||Johnson %||Stein %||Net Margin|
|10/17, IPW||Idaho||30||40||10||3||Trump +10|
|10/17, JMC Analytics||Louisiana||38||45||4||1||Trump +7|
|10/17, CNN/ORC||Nevada||46||44||7||N/A||Clinton +2|
|10/17, CNN/ORC||North Carolina||48||47||4||N/A||Clinton +1|
|10/17, CNN/ORC||Ohio||44||48||4||2||Trump +4|
|10/17, Rasmussen*||Utah||28||30||5||1||Trump +1*|
*Evan McMullin is actually polling second in this poll, receiving 29% of the vote
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).