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3 states

The number of states — Missouri, New Hampshire, and Nevada — where the polling average says the gap between two Senate candidates is one percentage point or smaller. Control of the Senate comes down to whether or not Democrats can flip four or more seats; we give the Democrats 57 percent odds as of early Monday morning. [FiveThirtyEight]


6 percentage points

In Nevada, more registered Democrats have turned out for early voting than registered Republicans by a six percentage point margin. In 2012, 70 percent of Nevada voters did so early, so this sizable lead could mean that the Silver State is already decided for Hillary Clinton. [FiveThirtyEight]


7 percent

Percentage of respondents to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll who said the 2016 election made them more proud of America. But seriously what kind of question is that? Like, are the 62 percent who said it made them less proud just hamming it up for the telemarketer on the other end of the line, or do they walk around their lives just ever so diminished? Kudos to the 28 percent who said “no difference either way” for just being honest about it. [The Wall Street Journal]


48.4 percent

That’s the expected share of the popular vote that Hillary Clinton is forecasted to win, based on the latest from the FiveThirtyEight model. Donald Trump is projected to get 45.3 percent, but there are a solid range of possibilities, so it’s worth checking out the model every minute of every day until you feel certain of your place in the world. [FiveThirtyEight]


868 polling places

The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights did a survey of 381 of the approximately 800 counties that once had to submit their voting-rule changes to the federal government due to their history of discrimination at the polls. (A 2013 Supreme Court ruling lifted that requirement.) It found that there were 868 fewer polling places in those counties than in 2012 or 2014. That can have the effect of long lines and reduced turnout. [The Nation]


565,000

According to a University of Florida professor’s analysis, that’s the number of Hispanic voters who had cast in-person early ballots in Florida as of Saturday, double the number in 2012. Factoring in absentee ballots, 911,000 Hispanic Floridians have already voted. [The Miami Herald]


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Source: FiveThirtyEight

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